What are you thankful for this season?

As we look around, there are so many things that leap out to us. Here at FourStar Wealth Advisors, we’re thankful for the incredible team we’ve built. We’re thankful for the remarkable opportunities and events we’ve experienced this year. And we’re endlessly thankful for our wonderful clients, who have entrusted us with the sacred honor of helping them build, live, and share a more full and complete life.

Another thing we’re thankful for? At this time of year, we get to gather together with family and friends to celebrate Thanksgiving.

A holiday with deep roots in American history, Thanksgiving is a celebration that we look forward to every year – and we’re certainly not alone. In fact, Thanksgiving is an incredibly important and major holiday. This is a day marked by a big meal, enormous amounts economic activity, and millions of people hitting the roads, the rails, and the skies.

Thanksgiving is a big deal. Once you get a sense of some of the statistics and data behind the holiday, that becomes all the more apparent. Let’s run down some of the most impressive numbers of the Thanksgiving season, when it comes to…

 

Food

When many people think of Thanksgiving, the very first thing that comes to mind is the meal.

According to findings from U.S. News & World Report, consumers typically spend between $2-3 billion per year on Thanksgiving feasts alone.

And as for what goes into that delicious dinner? According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 244 million turkeys were raised in the U.S, as of 2016. And, in 2015, roughly 51 million turkeys were bought and served.

And don’t forget the sides! According to the Census Bureau, 859 million pounds of cranberries were produced in the U.S. in 2016, with Wisconsin and Massachusetts contributing the most to the harvest.

According to a USDA survey, 3.1 billion pounds of sweet potatoes were produced in the U.S. in 2015. What’s more, in 2013, more than 315,000 acres of potatoes were harvested in Idaho alone.

Looking for a holiday treat that’s only growing in popularity? Then look no further than the humble pumpkin. Per findings from Nielsen, annual sales of “pumpkin” flavored products reached $488.8 million in 2018. This marks a 15.5 percent growth from 2017 numbers, and “an all-time high for the past five years.”

 

Travel

The Thanksgiving holiday marks one of the biggest times for travel in the U.S. – and this year is shaping up to be significant, according to recent reports from AAA.

In fact, AAA estimates that 54.3 million Americans will journey 50 miles or more away from home this Thanksgiving. That’s a 4.8 percent increase over 2017, and would mark the highest Thanksgiving travel volume since 2005. As a result, experts forecast that travel times in the most congested cities in the U.S. “could be as much as four times longer than a normal trip.”

Research suggests that fuel prices on Thanksgiving will be at their highest levels in four years; despite this, nearly five percent more Americans plan to hit the road this year than last year.

Part of the reason why? “Motorists have become accustomed to this year’s more expensive gas prices and won’t let higher fuel costs deter them from taking Thanksgiving road trips,” according to AAA gas price expert Jeanette Casselano.

And the general strength of the economy overall is also spurring more consumers to hit the roads – and the skies – this year, AAA reports.

“Consumers have a lot to be thankful for this holiday season: higher wages, more disposable income and rising levels of household wealth,” says Bill Sutherland, AAA Travel senior vice president. “This is translating into more travelers kicking off the holiday season with a Thanksgiving getaway, building on a positive year for the travel industry.”

Millions of Americans are planning to catch a plane this season, with the majority of consumers planning to fly on the Tuesday or Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving, paying an average of $478 for round trip tickets.

And while many, many Americans head home for the Thanksgiving holiday, others take advantage of the break from work and school to find time for a getaway. Some of the top Thanksgiving destinations this year include:

  • Orlando, Florida
  • New York, New York
  • Anaheim, California
  • Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Cancun, Mexico
  • Honolulu, Hawaii
  • Miami, Florida  

 

The Economy

In many ways, the week of Thanksgiving is seen as a forecast for the rest of the holiday shopping season, and even the year ahead.

Thanksgiving itself is one of the most important days on the calendar for the food and beverage industry, and the consumer-focused days that surround Turkey Day – including “Black Friday,” “Small Business Saturday,” and “Cyber Monday” – are among the most lucrative days for retail and ecommerce. As a result, as a report from Investopedia puts it, investors may “look at Black Friday sales numbers as a way to gauge the overall health of the entire retail industry.”

As a result, prognosticators tend to put a lot into predicting the sales levels for these commercial holidays, and they can play a big role in shaping investor confidence. If retailers post strong numbers in the days following Thanksgiving, then investors may be able to read this as a sign that the holiday shopping season ahead will be a big one, with this confidence being reflected in the stock market. However, if market expectations are not met on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, then investors may head into December more warily, as this could be a sign of a lack of consumer confidence or perhaps even a shakier economy.

However, with all this being said, it is also conventional wisdom that any gains or losses around Thanksgiving are often fairly short-lived phenomena.

As Investopedia puts it:

“A 2008 Market Watch analysis performed by Mark Hulbert looked at a 114-year sample on stock market performance following Thanksgiving and throughout the rest of the calendar year. He concluded that there was no correlation between a Black Friday bump and Q4 performance.

Thanksgiving and Black Friday can have major short-term trading implications on Wall Street, but their long-term stock market effects remain uncertain.”

But with that being said, it’s still worthwhile to note how big these days can be, for consumers and all sorts of businesses, from “mom and pop” stores to major retailers.

In 2017, for example, the National Retail Federation estimated that more than “164 million consumers would shop over Thanksgiving weekend and “Cyber Monday.” That’s 69 percent of all Americans. A quarter of those who planned to shop said this week marked the start of holiday shopping.

And so far in 2018, we have a fairly solid understanding of what consumers are looking for this year when it comes to November commerce. A recent Black Friday/Offers.com survey suggests that, this season:

  • Consumers plan on spending an average of $625 on holiday gifts
  • 38 percent plan to take advantage of “free shipping” as a retail perk
  • 44 percent consider the “quality of the product” to be the most important factor that influences them when they shop; this beats out finding the “lowest price” (36 percent)
  • Consumers are more interested in finding a new local store or business (56 percent) than trying a new e-retailer (15 percent) or national chain (8 percent)
  • More than half of all consumers plan to do their shopping online, whether by smartphone, laptop, or tablet
  • Consumers are most actively hunting for deals in tech (51 percent), clothes (22 percent), and toys (20 percent)

 

About FourStar Wealth Advisors

Four Star Wealth Advisors is a Registered Investment Advisor firm headquartered in Chicago. An independent firm without the conflicts of the old school firms. We believe that money and wealth are tools to help investors get where they are going and achieve their hopes and dreams. We hope we can help you achieve your hopes and dreams.

We believe success in achieving important financial goals starts with a comprehensive wealth strategy. We will help you define what is most important to you and then formulate the strategies that are suited for your needs, whether you are accumulating wealth or investing for income, solidifying your retirement plan or devising a distribution approach that meets your lifestyle and legacy goals.

Have any questions? Want to get in touch and continue the conversation? Don’t hesitate to drop us a line today, or give us a call at 312-667-1750.

 

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This article is provided by FourStar Wealth Advisors, LLC (“FourStar” or the “Firm”) for general informational purposes only.  This information is not considered to be an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments. Investing involves the risk of loss and investors should be prepared to bear potential losses. Investments should only be made after thorough review with your investment advisor, considering all factors including personal goals, needs and risk tolerance. FourStar is a SEC registered investment adviser that maintains a principal place of business in the State of Illinois. The Firm may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed or qualifies for a corresponding exemption from such requirements. For information about FourStar’s registration status and business operations, please consult the Firm’s Form ADV disclosure documents, the most recent versions of which are available on the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/